A new type of political forecast, called prediction surveys, predicts that both runoff elections for Georgia’s two U.S. Senate seats are likely to turn blue.
Developed by Northwestern University’s Thomas Miller, prediction surveys combine preference polling with the prediction market. Miller partnered with a consulting company to run daily polls among a sample of adults who have lived in Georgia for at least one year.
As of Jan. 5, about 1,200 Georgia residents have participated in the survey — conducted with the help of Isometric Solutions, Panel Consulting Group and Prodege LLC. Miller’s forecast indicates that both runoff elections are essentially tied, but numbers have been trending toward blue in recent days. Drawing on preference surveys, prediction surveys, markets and survey participation data, the forecast’s final predictions are:
- Democrat Jon Ossoff is favored to beat Republican David Perdue by 1 point.
- Democrat Rev. Raphael Warnock is favored to beat Republican Kelly Loeffler by 2 points.
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